Sal Frelick's Struggles: A Closer Look at a Brewers' Conundrum
The Milwaukee Brewers find themselves in a tricky situation with outfielder Sal Frelick. After a promising 2025 season, Frelick has struggled offensively and defensively in 2026, leading to speculation and calls for change. This article delves into Frelick's performance, exploring the reasons behind his struggles and why patience might be warranted.
Offense: A Matter of Launch Angles and Contact Quality
Frelick's 2026 season has been characterized by poor exit velocities, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage. These metrics, which indicate the quality of his contact, are all in the bottom 10% of the league. Interestingly, this isn't a new trend; Frelick struggled with these metrics last year as well. However, there's a crucial difference this time around.
The issue lies in Frelick's ground ball rate. He's hitting too many ground balls, which is a significant departure from his 2024 and 2025 seasons. This change is reflected in his launch angle data, with an average launch angle of 8.3 degrees, significantly lower than last season's 12.1 degrees. The problem is further exacerbated by his high percentage of 'topped' balls, where the ball goes directly into the ground, accounting for 42.4% of his hits.
This high ground ball rate and topped ball percentage are directly linked to Frelick's poor performance. With a slow bat speed and a high topped ball rate, he's not maximizing his theoretical exit velocity. This means that even when he squares up the ball, the results are often grounders that are less likely to result in hits.
Defense: A Declining Performance?
The defensive concerns are even more alarming. Frelick's Outs Above Average (OAA) metric, which measures his defensive contributions, has dropped significantly in 2026. He's now in the 28th percentile, a stark contrast to his 85th percentile in 2025. This decline is evident in various defensive statistics, including range and arm strength.
The question arises: is Frelick injured? While there's speculation about an oblique injury, his sprint speed remains intact, and he's still in the 86th percentile in this category. The decline in defensive value could be attributed to an upper body injury, but the specific cause remains unclear.
Patience and Potential
Despite the struggles, Frelick deserves patience. At 26 years old, he's still relatively young for an outfielder, and he had a solid 2025 season. His fWAR of 3.6 last year was impressive, and he's a well-regarded teammate who works hard. Additionally, there are signs of improvement, with a strong June performance and a higher xwOBA than his season average.
The Brewers should consider giving Frelick a chance to turn things around. He's a valuable part of the team's past and has the potential to be a key player in their future. While the current situation is frustrating, Frelick's young age and previous success suggest that some adjustments and patience could lead to a resurgence.
